American Future Life Optimism Reaches Record Low Amid Economic and Political Shifts

U.S. adults' anticipation of high-quality lives in five years fell to 59.2% in 2025, the lowest level since tracking began in 2008. This decline represents a 9.1 percentage point drop since 2020, with the "thriving" rate—a measure of both current and future life satisfaction—falling to 48.0% by the end of 2025. While current life ratings have not reached the lows seen during the 2020 pandemic, the sharp erosion in future expectations has driven the overall index down.

Economic data indicates that small-business confidence decreased in January as owners identified inflation and labor quality as significant challenges. Federal Reserve data further suggests that Americans remain pessimistic about their personal finances despite expressing optimism regarding the job market. The drop in future life ratings since 2021 coincides with annual inflation rates that peaked at 7.0% in 2021 and remained elevated through 2022.

Political transitions have also influenced sentiment. In 2025, the first year of President Donald Trump’s second administration, Democratic optimism fell by 7.6 points, while Republican optimism remained essentially unchanged. This follows a historical pattern where partisan life ratings swing based on party control of the White House, as seen in 2021 when Democratic optimism rose and Republican optimism fell.