Bangladesh Election Projections Indicate Landslide Victory for BNP as Polls Close

Polls have closed in Bangladesh’s first free election in 17 years, with unofficial results and media projections indicating a landslide victory for the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). Private broadcasters, including Jamuna TV and Ekattor TV, project the BNP has secured more than 200 seats in the 300-seat parliament, well beyond the 151 required for a majority. The Islamist party Jamaat-e-Islami, which campaigned as a major political force for the first time since being banned under the previous administration, is projected to win approximately 70 seats. The election follows the August 2024 student-led uprising that toppled Sheikh Hasina, whose Awami League party was banned from contesting the polls. Interim leader and Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus described the vote as the beginning of a "new dream" for the nation.

BNP leader Tarique Rahman, who returned from 17 years of exile in December, is expected to become the next prime minister. Rahman has pledged to implement economic reforms and establish a "National Reconciliation Commission" to address political divisions. However, the election has been criticized by the exiled Awami League, which described the process as a "well-planned farce" and argued that voting rights were disregarded. Despite these claims, voters reported a sense of choice for the first time in over a decade. Approximately 120 million people were eligible to vote, with turnout reaching 49% by mid-afternoon on Thursday. Voters also participated in a referendum on constitutional changes proposed by the interim government to reform the political system.

Concerns regarding women's rights and secularism remain a central point of friction. Jamaat-e-Islami fielded zero female candidates among its 200-plus contenders, and its leader, Shafiqur Rahman, has stated that women cannot lead the party. The National Citizen Party (NCP), formed by student leaders of the 2024 revolution, fielded only two women out of 30 candidates as part of its alliance with Jamaat-e-Islami. Representation for women was also low within the BNP, which fielded 10 female candidates out of more than 250. Human rights groups have noted a recent increase in the moral policing of women, though Tarique Rahman attributed such extremism to a long-term absence of democracy rather than religious sentiment.

Security for the election was high, with nearly one million police and soldiers deployed across the country. The vote marks a significant transition from the 15-year rule of Sheikh Hasina, who remains in exile in India and faces a death sentence for her role in the 2024 crackdown. The United Nations estimates that as many as 1,400 people died during the uprising. The incoming government faces the challenge of rebuilding the economy and navigating a strained relationship with India, which was a close ally of the previous administration.